The Death of the "Guarantee Return" Model
Pre-2019, the Thai market was dominated by mass-market condo sales to Chinese investors, often sold with "7% Guaranteed Return" schemes. This model has collapsed. The default of several operators in Pattaya and Phuket has permanently damaged trust in off-plan condo yield products.
The Rise of the "Pool Villa"
Post-COVID, demand has shifted vertically to the luxury pool villa segment (15M - 40M THB) in Phuket (Bang Tao, Layan) and Chiang Mai (Hang Dong). This is driven by:
- "Plan B" Migration: Buyers are no longer purely speculators; they are seeking second homes for potential relocation.
- Education Visas: The proximity of international schools in Phuket is now a higher correlation factor for property value than beach access.
Chart Analysis: Phuket Villa Approvals
Construction permits for single-detached houses in Thalang district are up 140% YoY, while condo permits are flat. This oversupply in the villa segment poses a medium-term risk of rental yield compression.