The Policy Shock
The total ban on Philippine Offshore Gaming Operators (POGOs) has triggered an immediate exodus of high-paying commercial tenants, particularly in the Bay Area (Pasay/Parañaque) and Makati off-CBD zones. POGOs previously accounted for up to 15% of occupied Grade B office stock.
Impact Assessment
- Office Vacancy: We project Metro Manila vacancy rates to breach 22% by Q3 2024 as POGO occupiers surrender leases.
- Residential Collateral Damage: The "POGO Dormitory" market—condo units rented en-masse for staff housing—is collapsing. Secondary market rental rates in affected buildings have corrected by -40% QoQ.
Strategic Advisory: Landlords with significant exposure to "grey market" tenants must urgently pivot to BPO-friendly compliance standards (PEZA accreditation) to attract replacement tenants.